Beto O’Rourke stood at his podium during the last Democrat Debate, and spoke those words, and forever changed the gun debate in this country.  When he spoke those words the crowd at the debate lost it’s mind, and so did every anti-gunner in the country.  Here was a guy who spoke the words the Left has been longing to hear from a Presidential candidate.  The next day, social media was alight with the anti-gun crowd crowing about Beto’s remarks.  Almost immediately the right came back with a “We dare you”.

The chaos was touched off, the threats of violence arced back and forth, even a Republican politician stepping forth to tell Beto; “My AR-15 is waiting for you.” Beto O’ Rourke threatened the life, and the liberty of millions of American citizens.  In one fell swoop, he made quite a few people angry, and gave the Democrats their platform for 2020, whether they want it or not.  “Hell yeah……”

Through the chorus of threats, and counter-threats, and some weak voices on the left trying to walk that comment back, there wasn’t a single person who gave any thought to what such a gun confiscation would look like.  A Presidential candidate threatened the liberty of the American people.  This wasn’t some throwaway line, some remark made hypothetically.  No. This was a threat.  A threat by a Presidential candidate to take away the liberties of normal law-abiding American citizens.  People who have done nothing other than exercise their right to bear arms.  Beto doubled down later, stating that he believed Americans would willingly give up their guns peacefully.  There was an ominous feel to that, as if there was an unspoken “or else”

To the Right, gun ownership is sacrosanct. It is the pinnacle of living in a free society. The right to go out and purchase a firearm, and be able to use that firearm for law-abiding, and peaceful pursuits free of government interference, regulation, or persecution.

Beto changed that.

He clearly states that there is going to be persecution of those who exercise their right.  It is something the Right has known for years, and the Left has always dreamed about.  Now, they have a candidate (who is still polling like crap, and in all reality, is a complete clown) who put their wishes into emphatic words.  Now, Beto has as much chance of being President as I have of going on a date with my favorite actress, but, that’s not the point.  He is a low-polling candidate, he has zero charm, charisma, gravitas, or anything that makes him appealing in any sense of the word.  What he did do, was say what the leading candidates, (Warren, Biden, Sanders) want to say, but can’t because it wouldn’t do them any good.  They can, however, let Beto take the heat, and in the meantime, agree with that idea silently, while the raucous around O’Rourke guarantees no one is noticing the silence of the lead candidates. He can be out there campaigning, whipping up crowds with the “Hell yeah”, putting the message out there, while the front-runners campaign on everything else. Sanders, Warren, and Biden will remain silent on the issue, or near-silent until it’s time to say it themselves.  When O’Rourke drops out, the message will still be there.

By the end of the week, some people were giving thought to what would happen.  First of all, Right wing and Left wing wet dreams not withstanding, it is a complex question that provides no easy answers.

First of all, the numbers: Not counting military, and law-enforcement, there are 393,000,000 legally-owned guns in the United States.  Of that number anywhere from 10 million to 15 million are AR-15, or AK-47 type rifles.  There is no real way to track the numbers because laws regarding registration and such vary from state to state.   393 million guns equates to 1.2 guns per person.  Now, obviously not everyone owns a gun, in fact, about 1/2 of those guns are owned by 3% of the population   even if 11 million people own 196 million guns (that’s about 180 guns per person…..hmmmmm have to think about that) that still leaves 196 million firearms in the possession of the remaining 97% of the population.  Just looking at the numbers, and as impressive (or shocking) as they are, that is a lot of firepower to easily overcome  Looking at this on the surface, it seems a hopeless case for those that wish to confiscate.  (Yes, they will come for all of the guns, not just the AR-15, AK-47, and similar types, if you think otherwise, you are a fool.)

In the by-numbers analysis, we leave out one important thing:  Human nature.  Despite the “from my cold dead hands” rhetoric on the Right, there are plenty of people who would willingly give up their firearms.  There is, and they will.  Statistically, and from a human-nature standpoint, there are those that will, and as much as some 2nd Amendment supporters disagree with that, there is truth to it.  However, that being said, not everyone will give them up, and despite the “Hell yeah we’re taking it” rhetoric of the Left, wrapped in unspoken, ominous threats, not every gun owner is going to give them up easily.  Why? Let’s examine.

Now, I do not profess to be any kind of behavioral expert, or psychology-type or any of that.  I am basing what I think on what I observe about people, what I understand about government, and what history has taught me.  People are, by and large, peaceful individuals who just want to be left alone to live their lives.  That being said, to insure they can live their lives, most people will acquiesce to what the government asks of them, because, they are law abiding citizens, and will follow the law.  Now, that does not include all people.  We know this, because it is also human nature to rebel against what one feels is unjust.  The question is, how many will give up, and how many will rebel.  As far as surrendering their guns, it is all going to depend how such a law, if passed, would work.  My guess is they would start with a public shame campaign aimed at gun owners, and their families. Gun owners would be singled out, and the threat of job loss would be one of the ways they would get to people.  “What if we told your boss you are a gun owner?”  More so, and I can see this happening, some employers would openly tell their employees they look down upon gun ownership, and imply that continuing to own a weapon would put employment in jeopardy.  Would that be legal? Of course not, but in this day and age, that doesn’t seem to matter.  So, many people would be under intense pressure to give up their guns before a law goes into effect that would surely punish them.  There would be politicians and media types out there, gently cajoling people to “avoid the humiliation” or “is your job worth that AR-15 in the closet? What would you tell your kids?”  If there is one thing the Left is good at, is those kinds of tactics.  Pressured from family, and work, and public opinion, many people would decide that keeping the gun is not worth it.  It could happen, and I could see it happening. Don’t dismiss tactics like this. Public shaming works enough times to make it effective.

On the flip-side however, gun ownership in the US goes hand-in-hand with liberty.  We are free because we get to own guns. Many people, and I honestly think the majority, will not give up their guns quietly.  I know many gun owners, to a person, they are adamant about maintaining their rights.  The Right to Bear Arms is seen by many as the protector of the other rights.  If they take away one right, what is to stop them from taking away the rest?  There is already an assault on free speech in this country.  If the 2nd Amendment goes away, what is there to protect the 1st Amendment, or the 4th, or the 5th, or any of them? If anyone thinks they would stop at repealing the 2nd Amendment, again, you’re a damned fool.   Any politician who thinks confiscating guns is going to be easy, needs a reality check.  If confiscation comes to pass, it’s not going to be pretty.  The quickest way to get people to rebel, is to tell them something they are accustomed to having, they now have to give up, or have it forcibly taken.

How would they do it?  Beto mentioned that Law Enforcement would be tasked with the job.  Police officer attitudes toward gun ownership varies. I know some that would love to see them more restricted, and I know of some that think they shouldn’t be restricted at all.  In fact, most cops I have known (I have about 15 years in Public Safety) worry less about legal gun owners, because they are not the problem.  The problem is the criminal element that has no problems getting the guns they need, those are the people cops worry about.  In many places the local police are gun owners themselves.  They are not going to easily turn on friends and family to forcibly take something from them that was purchased, and used legally.

If you put the onus on the Feds, perhaps backed up by the military, or at the very least, National Guard units, you again have the same issue.  Military people are less likely to follow those orders than police officers will.  Forcibly trying to take rightfully owned property from people who have never done anything wrong is going to result in violence.  It will be unavoidable.  Whatever happens will be messy, deadly, and would rip this country further apart, if not totally apart.  It is irresponsible of anyone to wish for any of this, but it seems this is the road we are on.  It is terribly depressing, and to some degree distressing as well.  It is disheartening to read the garbage posted by anti-gun people who are gleefully hoping for the violent death of fellow citizens.  Same goes for the pro-gunners as well.  Most of the strident “Give us your guns, or we will kill you” rhetoric comes from Left.  A brief perusal of social media will show you that.  It’s hard not to envision an almost Armageddon-like 2020, if you take all that you see, and all that is said.

The ideal answer to all of this, is for the government to leave us the hell alone, fix the broken justice system, start incarcerating felons, and prosecuting the law-breakers. That would fix many problems in this country, especially in our cities. (Chicago, anyone?) Punishing the law abiding only encourages those who break the law.  That, however, makes too much sense.

I have no idea what comes next.  I leave that to people who are better at reading this stuff than I am.  Perhaps this will be walked back in the coming weeks when the Democrats realize they are further demonizing themselves. (I don’t really think they care, however).  As of this week, Kavanaugh seems to be the issue du jour, and their focus for now.  (Not going there, only because that’s ten paragraphs I don’t have time for right now, it’s late, and I am tired).

This is a flashpoint issue, right up there with abortion, and illegal immigration.  The next 14 months are going to be something else.